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Latest Industry News and predicted fuel price fluctuations for May 2025

South African motorists can anticipate a modest reduction in fuel prices from 5 May 2025.

Amid global chaos in the markets, things are at least looking good for South African motorists as fuel price recoveries sit firmly in positive territory.

This is thanks to a much weaker global oil price and a turnaround in the rand/dollar exchange rate as a semblance of calm returns to trades.

The Central Energy Fund (CEF) reports an over-recovery of approximately 85–98 cents per litre for petrol and 87 cents per litre for diesel. Despite a 3 cents per litre increase in the carbon fuel levy—raising petrol from 11cpl to 14cpl and diesel from 14cpl to 17cpl—​this over-recovery is expected to offset the tax hike, resulting in a net decrease at the pump.

The latest data shows an decrease in both the petrol and diesel prices, with the former on track to come down by 20- 30 cents per litre, and the latter around cents 35 – 45 cents per litre.

These are the projections released on 21 April 2025:

  • Petrol 93: decrease of 19 cents per litre
  • Petrol 95: decrease of 21 cents per litre
  • Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 38 cents per litre
  • Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 38 cents per litre

VAT Increase and Its Impact on the Fuel Industry

Effective 1 May 2025, South Africa’s Value-Added Tax (VAT) will rise by 0.5 percentage points, from 15% to 15.5%. This adjustment is part of a phased increase outlined in the 2025 Budget, with a second 0.5-point rise scheduled for 1 April 2026, bringing the total to 16% . While fuel levies remain frozen, the carbon tax increase will slightly elevate fuel costs. However, the VAT hike is anticipated to generate an additional R13.5 billion in revenue for the 2025/26 fiscal year, supporting government expenditure plans.

A Noteworthy Development in the Fuel Sector

In April 2025, TotalEnergies received approval to explore a new offshore area in South Africa’s Deep Water Orange Basin, approximately 200 km off the west coast. This exploration targets a promising region near the Namibia border, potentially unlocking significant oil and gas reserves. The company plans to drill up to seven exploration wells, pending environmental impact assessments, which could bolster South Africa’s energy security and economic prospects.