Market trends, Price shifts, and regulatory development impacting the wholesale fuel sectors
As we approach June 2025, the South African wholesale fuel market is seeing a noticeable shift in momentum, with encouraging sign for diesel and petrol buyers.
Industry data points to a moderate decrease in wholesale fuel prices, backed by international trends and strengthening macroeconomic indicators. This months update explores the latest developments and what they mean for your operations.
FUEL PRICE FORECAST - Relief Expected for June 2025
The Central Energy Fund’s mid-May snapshot indicates a notable over-recovery across fuel types, signaling price drops ahead.
The figures below suggest that barring last-minute oil market fluctuations or geopolitical instability, diesel and petrol prices will decline at the start of next month.
June 2025 fuel prices: Predicted changes for petrol and diesel…so far
- Petrol 93: Decrease of 30-45 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: Decrease of 30-42 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Decrease of 56-65 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Decrease of 56-68 cents per litre
Crucial factors: Rand/dollar, oil prices and stable local demand
Global oil markets have softened in recent weeks. Brent crude oil fell from $74,89 to $71.04 per barrel reflecting higher output expectations from OPEC+ nations, increased supply from non-OPEC producers like the U.S and Canada, and weakened global demand due to slower industrial activity in parts of Asia and Europe.
The South African rand has strengthened significantly, trading at around R18.50 to the U.S Dolla – an improvement from R19.00 in January. This currency appreciation reduces cost of importing fuel, translating to lower local prices.
Lastly, fuel consumption in the wholesale sector has remained stable, particularly in agriculture, freight, and manufacturing. This predictable demand helps balance stock levels and reduce price volatility at the wholesale tier.
TAX and Regulatory Adjustments: What You Need to Know
While fuel prices are trending down, tax changes introduced in May 2025 warrent attention. South Africa’s Value Added Tax (VAT) was raised from 15% to 15.5% on 1 May 2025. A further 0.5% is planned for April 2026. The Carbon fuel levy has also increased from 11 cpl to 14 cpl on Petrol and from 14 cpl to 17 cpl for Diesel.
Importantly, fuel levies and the Road Accident Fund (RAF) levy remains unchanged, which provides some cost stability . The over-recovery in fuel pricing is expected to absorb most of these tax increases, keeping ovarall prices lower heading into winter.
Industry Highlights and Strategic Shifts:
South Africa’s bulk goods transport sector is showing early signs of recovery. With coal export volumes expected to rebound due to improved rail logistics, broader fuel distribution efficiencies may also improve -especially for clients in high-volume or remote sectors.