November 2025 Fuel Price Forecast:
Relief on the Horizon as Global Trends Shift
South African motorists can anticipate a modest reduction in fuel prices from 5 November 2025.
As the year draws to a close, fuel wholesalers and transport operators across Gauteng are watching global and local market movements closely. The indicators for November 2025 suggest a welcome reprieve in fuel prices, though underlying global supply dynamics and domestic refining constraints mean the relief may be short-lived. Both diesel and petrol are tracking toward notable decreases, offering some breathing space for the transport, agricultural, and industrial sectors that have endured a volatile pricing environment throughout much of the year.
Early data from the Central Energy Fund’s mid-month review points to an over-recovery in the price of both petrol and diesel, meaning South African consumers and wholesalers are currently paying more than the international oil market and exchange rate fundamentals would dictate. This over-recovery indicates that a price cut is likely when official adjustments are made at the start of November. For Gauteng specifically, diesel prices are projected to fall by around 24 to 29 cents per litre, while petrol could drop by between 35 and 40 cents per litre. The rand’s relative stability against the US dollar has supported these projections, while Brent crude oil has eased toward the USD 60 per barrel mark — its lowest level since mid-2024.
The combination of a softer crude oil price and a slightly stronger rand has provided a rare window of relief in an otherwise tight global market. However, caution remains warranted. The final price determination still depends on how the rand trades in the coming weeks and whether global product prices remain subdued. A late-month oil rally or sudden rand depreciation could easily erode these expected savings. For wholesalers, the anticipated decrease in landed fuel cost will likely narrow operational expenses slightly but may also compress margins unless handled strategically. Businesses relying on diesel for fleet or industrial use should prepare for marginally lower input costs but continue budgeting conservatively given the market’s volatility.
Globally, one of the most influential factors shaping diesel and petrol costs this quarter has been tightening diesel supply chains. Inventories in major trading hubs such as Europe, Singapore and the United States remain significantly below their ten-year averages. The European Union’s continued sanctions on refined fuel imports from Russia have reshaped trade flows and driven up freight rates, keeping refining margins elevated despite weaker crude prices. These conditions mean that even as headline oil prices fall, the cost of producing and transporting refined products such as diesel remains higher than usual. For South Africa, which imports the bulk of its refined fuel, this imbalance translates into persistent supply risk and occasional volatility in landed prices.
While current forecasts point to a modest decrease in November, any major refinery outages, export restrictions, or shipping delays could reverse the trend. Wholesalers should therefore view the coming price drop as temporary breathing room rather than a lasting correction. Managing inventory prudently — avoiding over-stocking while ensuring sufficient reserves — will be key to weathering potential supply shocks later in the year.
On the domestic front, South Africa’s refining capacity continues to play a decisive role in shaping fuel price dynamics.
With several major refineries still offline or under upgrade, the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuel products. Astron Energy’s ongoing R6 billion investment to upgrade its Cape Town refinery to meet cleaner fuel standards by 2027 is an encouraging development, but in the interim, local production remains constrained. This situation exposes the market to the twin vulnerabilities of currency fluctuations and global shipping costs. Any disruption in international supply lines can quickly ripple through to inland distributors, particularly in Gauteng, where logistics costs and storage constraints add further pressure to margins.
On the positive side, a decrease of around 25 to 30 cents per litre in dieseland 35 to 40 cents in petrol should provide some cost relief. The challenge lies in capitalising on that margin window before potential global or domestic disruptions narrow it again. Maintaining strong supplier relationships, monitoring international market signals, and planning inventory movements strategically will keep us as QFS competitive through the coming quarter.
QFS will use this temporary relief period to optimise operations, maintain reliable supply channels, and strengthen financial resilience ahead of what promises to be another unpredictable summer in global energy markets.